The European
Union would insist on completing a swift divorce with Britain before
starting to forge any new relationship if UK voters decide in June to
leave the 28-member bloc.
Two
EU sources familiar with the bloc's latest thinking on a possible
Brexit told Reuters on Thursday there was no appetite to grant any
extension of the two years provided by the EU's Lisbon Treaty for
negotiating a withdrawal, while any new trade partnership would take
many more years to conclude.
The
stark view from Brussels means Britain could initially be cut adrift
without any preferential relationship with its biggest trade partner. It
contrasts with suggestions by "Leave" campaigners that London could
secure a special status preserving market access before it formally
leaves the EU.
Top EU officials say
they are still confident that Britons will ultimately vote in a June 23
referendum to stay in the community they joined in 1973, despite
opinion polls showing a close race.
However
in case of a "Leave" vote, the European Commission has tentative plans
to hold a rare Sunday meeting on June 26 to set its strategy, one source
told Reuters.
EU leaders would
hold a brief summit with Britain two days later, at which London would
be expected to give formal notice to quit. The 27 other states would
then meet without British representatives to decide how to conduct the
withdrawal negotiations and take the union forward, based on proposals
from the executive Commission.
"It
is in our interest to do the divorce as quickly as possible. There's no
appetite for negotiating new terms in the first two years," one source
said.
Another source said: "The shorter the better. No one wants to go beyond the two years. The show must go on."
Both
sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the acute political
sensitivity of any contingency planning for a British departure.
SPEEDY SEPARATION
The
first source said the initial two-year negotiations would cover only
issues such as residual EU budget payments to and from Britain, the
pensions of British EU civil servants and relocation of EU agencies
based in the UK.
The EU treaty
says exit talks can be extended by unanimous vote among all the member
states, but both sources said London's partners would want a speedy
separation.
Britain would probably
leave on July 1, 2018, and become a "third country" in EU parlance.
Formal negotiations on some form of trade and partnership agreement
could begin only then, the first source said.
In Britain, the officially designated "Out" campaign said such comments indicated European officials were detached from reality.
"Only
Commission officials detached from reality could suggest something that
would both not be in their power and would quite obviously harm a euro
zone economy already teetering on the brink," said a spokesman for Vote
Leave.
"Britain is the world’s
fifth largest economy and the EU’s biggest export market. A vote to
leave would start a set of discussions about a trade deal that would be
in the mutual interest of both the EU and the UK. There’s a free trade
zone from Iceland to Turkey and outside of the EU we would be part of
that."
In case of a vote to remain,
the Commission has kept in place a small UK Task Force which helped to
craft a deal negotiated by Prime Minister David Cameron in February to
meet British concerns on migrant workers' welfare rights and relations
with the euro single currency zone.
The seven-member team led by British EU official Jonathan Faull would oversee smooth implementation of the agreement.
That deal lapses
automatically if Britain votes to leave, and the first source said a
completely different team would be appointed, probably led by a German
or French official, to handle exit negotiations.
German
and French politicians have warned that London would get no special
favours and should expect tough talks in case of a Brexit. EU partners
would want to discourage other members from trying to renegotiate
membership terms or withdraw.
"Out means out!" Volker Kauder, leader of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative group in parliament said this week.
British
Europe minister David Lidington, who supports the "Remain" camp, said
on Thursday it was doubtful whether Britain would get any trade
agreement with the EU within 10 years.
However,
"Leave" supporters have argued that the EU would have to conclude a
quick free trade deal with London since the continent has a big trade
surplus with the UK and stood to lose exports if tariff barriers were
introduced.
Richard Tice, a
co-founder of Leave.eu, another British Out campaign, said the likely
roadmap sketched by EU sources was "exactly the sort of scaremongering
that we have expected from the Remain camp.
"(It)
reminds us of the threats people made if we did not join the euro.
Brussels has a track record of bullying and denying democracy, but they
underestimate the fighting spirit of the British people," Tice said.
Reuters